What mysterious ingredients make a book launch successful? What number of first-week and first-year sales truly make a difference to a book’s longevity? What can you do to turn lagging numbers around?
These vexing questions set today’s guest on a quest to examine a dataset of five years of book sales data across 6,775 titles in business and self-help to find answers—and he did.
In a flagship illuminating post for the industry, Todd Sattersten, publisher and owner of Bard Press, shared his findings in The Magic Number. In this behind-the-business conversation from October 2023, you’ll hear him generously talk me through how I could help Free Time get there—with a much-needed morale boost at the end.
After you listen to this episode, check out part two of our conversation here:
More About Todd
Todd Sattersten is the publisher and owner of Bard Press, a book publisher that works with authors to create best-selling books in business, personal development and technology. Before Bard Press, Todd served as general manager of IT Revolution and president of business book retailer 800-CEO-READ. He is the author of Every Book Is a Startup and the co-author of The 100 Best Business Books of All Time (Portfolio, 2009). Todd lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife Amy and their three awesome kids.
🌟 3 Key Takeaways
A book launch is a set of activities to engage people and create momentum, and there is no common blueprint for success. “Each book is different—in its approach to a problem and delivery of solution. Each author is different—in what they bring to the launch. And the world itself is different every time you bring a book into the world.”
The Magic Number: The data says is that if you can get into the 10,000 to 25,000 copy range for first year sales, you have a 42% chance of selling more than 25,000 copies in lifetime sales. If you get past that 10K mark, there is a 4 in 10 chance of getting beyond 25K copies sold.
Endorsements should triangulate the reader to think this book is for them. Who is the highest comp author? A practitioner (someone doing the work or even a related recognizable company), a reader who demonstrates utility.
📝 Permission
Put your ego down. Remember, you want your readers to be better, to improve their lives. Our job is to find more people to help, and there are still so many opportunities for that. You don’t actually have to stop promoting the book after it’s launched—there is nobody stopping you!
✅ Do (or Delegate) This Next
Send a survey out to your readers and community, ideally 90 to 120 days after the book comes out. Check out the one Jenny sent here—and please take it if you can at the same time!
Your introduction / call to action might sound like, “I need 90 seconds of your time. I want to ask you about {Your Book Tile}. It’s just three questions, would you take the time to give me some feedback?”
Questions to ask (see full show notes here if you can’t see these):
Did you get a copy of the book? (Did they perceive the value? This thing fits for me)
→ Branching, end the survey there
Multiple choice: Was it time, money, not the right topic?
For the first 100 people, if they don’t have a copy, send one, then follow-up with those 100 people → does it work?
If they say no, they would ask, can I get you a copy? Send you a copy? First five chapters? (Trial-ability is very important)
Did you read it?
Can I write you in a few weeks and see if the book has been helpful? 30% will give you their email and give you permission to be an accountability buddy
Would you recommend it to a friend or colleague? (Net Promoter Score, scale from 0 to 10; promoters are 9s and 10s, neutrals are 7s and 8s, detractors are 0 to 6s)
Branch: for the promoters, ask them: How would you describe the book to someone else?
Update book description to update word-of-mouth language
🔗 Resources Mentioned
Todd on the web, IG, X, LinkedIn
Publisher: Bard Press
Take the Free Time reader survey Jenny sent here, whether you’ve read the book or not!
Bard Press Articles: The Magic Number and The Few, The Many, and the Reality of Power Laws
Net Promoter Score (NPS): https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_promoter_score
Technology Adoption Life Cycle: Innovators → early adopters → early majority → late majority → laggards
BookBub and The Fussy Librarian for ebook promotions
X thread by Jason Colavito: Publishing stats for 2022 (h/t Dorie Clark)
EPJ Data Science: Success in books: predicting book sales before publication
The Honest Broker: 10 Reasons Why I’m Publishing My Book on Substack
Jenny’s Author Toolkit and Free Time Leader Kit
📚 Books Mentioned
The One Thing by Jay Papasan and Gary Keller
Atomic Habits by James Clear
Your First 1000 Copies by Tim Grahl
The Snowball System and Give to Grow by Mo Bunnell
🎧 Related Episodes
Self-Publishing School: The Engineer Approach to Millions of Copies Sold with Todd Sattersten
Billion Dollar Creator: 018: How to Write a Book That Sells for Decades with Tim Grahl
Free Time: 249: Systems for Selling Over One Million Books and 012: Generating Personal MBA Momentum with Josh Kaufman
084: Sprinkling the First 1,000 Serendipity Seeds of a Launch
103: How to Land a Literary Agent and Publisher with David Moldawer (Part One)
105: “Don’t write the wrong book!” with David Moldawer (Part Two)
203: 🎢 Riding the Emotional Rollercoaster of Launching with Natalie Lue
Pivot: 207: How to Develop Your Book and Big Idea (Part 1) and 208: Your Book and Big Idea (Part 2)
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✍️ Check out Jenny’s personal business essays on Substack, Rolling in D🤦🏻♀️h
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📝 Check out full show notes and share: https://itsfreetime.com/episodes/268
Listen to part two of our conversation here:
268: Strategies for Surpassing “The Magic Number” of Book Sales with Todd Sattersten of Bard Press (Part One)